Common questions
How should I read the percentage?
It is how confident the model is that neither team scores in the first inning.
57% is where a game becomes a play. 62% is strong. 68 to 70% is about as
good as it gets. Anything under 57 is a toss-up and we leave it alone.
Why do I never see 80%?
Because it does not exist. NRFI needs both halves of the first to stay scoreless.
A league average lineup gets blanked about 72% of the time, and even an ace in a perfect spot
only gets his side to roughly 85%. Put two great sides together and about 70% is the honest
ceiling.
Even the books' heaviest NRFI favorites price around 65 to 70%. Anyone advertising 80%
winners is selling you something.
What does the ⚠ mean?
That number is built on thin data. Either the starter is not confirmed yet, or he has fewer
than four starts this season.
When that happens the gaps get filled with league average numbers, so the confidence is
closer to a default than a real read on him. Trust it less. Tap the ⚠ or open Details for the
exact reason.
What do "lineups pending" and "lineups in" mean?
Teams post their batting orders two to four hours before first pitch. Until then we use each
team's most recent order, which is usually close but not identical.
Lineups pending means the number can still move. Lineups in means it is built on
the real card. The board rechecks on its own every few minutes and re-prices a game the moment
its lineup lands, so you are not stuck refreshing.
Why are some games not graded?
Only calls at 57% or better count as plays. Anything below that is a toss-up and a pass: the
card still shows what happened, but it never touches the record.
57 is not an arbitrary line. At typical NRFI juice of -130 you have to win about 56.5% of the
time just to break even, so a 53% call is a bet that loses money on average even when it wins
more often than it loses. We would rather show you four plays than fourteen.
That includes games where the model leans the other way. We never asked you to bet those, so
counting them as wins when a run scores would pad the record for free. Plenty of published records
do exactly that, which is a good reason to be skeptical of them.
What number should I judge you on?
The one at the top of History: how often our 60%+ calls actually land.
At typical NRFI juice of -130 you need about 57% just to break even, so that is the bar that
matters. Everything else is context.
When does the board update?
By itself, every few minutes while it is open. It picks up posted lineups, starter changes and
scratches, and results as games go final. Hit Refresh any time to force it.
Once a first inning is decided the card commits to the result:
✓ NRFI hit or
✗ miss.
Informational only, not betting advice. Lines and lineups change, so always verify before
wagering. 21+. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
